Let’s picture a game of chess. Two fierce opponents engaged in an intense battle. Both opponents are anticipating each other’s moves and planning their countermoves. Similar to how a game of chess is played with tactics and planning, two powerful nations are playing politics right now exactly that way.
Talking about China and Taiwan. The tensions between these two countries have been contentious since the Chinese Civil War. China believes Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory under the “One China principle”, while Taiwan functions like a completely independent country.
One wants political reunification, another wants sovereignty. In recent times, the dispute has garnered more attention due to the involvement of the USA and the palpable chance of a military invasion of Taiwan by China.
The “One China Principle” States that there is only one sovereign state under the name China operated by the Beijing government; both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. This policy implies that Taiwan is not an independent country and therefore, countries that hold diplomatic relations with China must cut official ties with Taiwan.
The “One China” principle also is a promise of the Chinese communist government that Taiwan will reunite with the mainland someday. However, Taiwan has been functioning independently with its separate government, constitution, and military for decades. Taiwan has a successful economy and is a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing. It also ranks 32 in the global democracy rank. Taiwan and China could not be more different.
Under China’s “One Nation” policy, the US recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole and legitimate government of China, including Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China.
At the same time, the US also maintains close unofficial links with Taiwan Under the Taiwan Relations Act. This act commits the US to supply weapons to Taiwan as a means of self-defense.
However, last year the tensions between the three countries escalated when Nancy Pelosi, the 52nd speaker of the United State House of Representatives decided to visit Taiwan to show support for its democraticness on 2nd August. This move infuriated China.
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was seen as a provocative challenge to China’s stance on Taiwan and a violation of the “One China” principle. China condemned that such meddling in its internal affairs would not be tolerated. As a result, within hours of Nancy’s visit to Taiwan, China fired several missiles over the Taiwan Strait in the name of drills.
Although later on, the President of China Xi Jinping expressed his wish for a peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China, all the aggressiveness indicated that China will not hesitate to take over Taiwan by force.
Following this, American President Joe Biden commented that the US would come to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. This remark fueled the Chinese government’s anger and President Xi Jinping warned the US not to play with fire.
Recently, there is an ongoing discussion of a meeting between US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’ and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. How China will react to this meeting can be fathomed from the prior visit of Nancy Pelosi.
Why the US is becoming this supportive of Taiwan is no wonder. Taiwan is located in the “First Island Chain” – a list of islands that are crucial for its foreign policy. Not to forget, the growing fight for power between China and the USA over the Russia-Ukraine issue has now deepened as a consequence.
Along these three countries, North Korea is also trying to stir the pot by showing its support to China and bashing the US. Although initially, South Korea wanted to maintain strategic ambiguity, now it is likely that SK would provide indirect assistance to the US in defending Taiwan. In such complex circumstances, if more countries start picking sides such as Russia backing China, and Europe backing the US, a third world war is inevitable.
Now as the whole world watches with bated breath, who will win this game of chess? Will Taiwan be able to secure its sovereignty or will it succumb to China? And most importantly, between China and the US, who will be the winner of global power dynamics?
Writer
Kaneta Islam
Intern
Content Writing Department, YSSE